Tatevik Sekhposyan

Tatevik Sekhposyan

I am an Associate Professor (with tenure) in the Department of Economics at Texas A&M University, specializing in applied macroeconomics. I am currently on leave from the university and am visiting the Economic Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in the capacity of a visiting fellow.

Disclaimer: The material on this website does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System.

E-mail: tsekhposyan (at) tamu (dot) edu
tatevik (dot) sekhposyan (at) gmail (dot) com

tatevik (dot) sekhposyan (at) sf (dot) frb (dot) org

Curriculum Vitae Research Statement Uncertainty Indices

Most recently taught courses: ECON 674, Economic Forecasting, Spring 2019 and ECON 689, Special Topics in Empirical Methods for Macro, Fall 2018

The Economics Department at TAMU has hosted the 27th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Econometrics Group on October 20th and October 21st, 2017.

Slides for the 2015 Armenian Economic Association Workshop on "Forecasting Techniques and Forecast Evaluation"

Research Fields

Macroeconomics, Time Series (Classical and Bayesian) Econometrics, Forecasting

Working Papers

"Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence" (with Lukas Hoesch and Barbara Rossi), February, 2020. (Short discussion in VoxEU)

"From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts" (with Gergely Ganics and Barbara Rossi), December, 2019.

"Survey-based Monetary Policy Uncertainty and its Asymmetric Effects" (with Tatjana Dahlhaus), updated in March, 2020. The previous version is available as a Bank of Canada Working Paper. (Short discussion in Central Banking)
→ Monetary Policy Uncertainty Index in Excel

"Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty" (with Barbara Rossi and Matthieu Soupre), updated in February, 2017.

"Real-Time Forecasting with a Large, Mixed Frequency, Bayesian VAR" (with Michael McCracken and Michael Owyang), updated in July, 2019. Previous, considerably different version is available as a St. Louis Fed Working Paper.

Academic Publications

"Predicting Relative Forecasting Performance: an Empirical Investigation" (with Eleonora Granziera), International Journal of Forecasting 35(4), 2019, 1636-1657. Appendix.

"Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities" (with Barbara Rossi), Journal of Econometrics 208(2), 2019, 638-657. (Matlab codes, simple codes to implement the tests, tests are also available in software packages F.I.T. and BEAR)

"Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices for the Euro Area and its Individual Member Countries" (with Barbara Rossi), Empirical Economics 53(1), 2017, 41-62. (Working paper with more robustness results, Matlab codes)
→ Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices in Excel

"Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts" (with Barbara Rossi), Journal of Applied Econometrics 31(3), 2016, 507-532. (Appendix, Matlab codes, also implemented in software packages F.I.T. and BEAR)

"Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions" (with Barbara Rossi), American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 105(5), 2015, 650-655. (Appendix, Replication Matlab codes)
→ Matlab codes for updating the series as new data become available
→ Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index in Excel, last updated in April, 2019

"Evaluating Predictive Densities of U.S. Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set" (with Barbara Rossi), International Journal of Forecasting 30(3), 2014, 662-682. (Matlab codes, Comment)

"Conditional Predictive Density Evaluation in the Presence of Instabilities" (with Barbara Rossi), Journal of Econometrics 177(2), 2013, 199-212. (Matlab codes)

"Okun’s Law over the Business Cycle: Was the Great Recession All That Different?" (with Michael Owyang), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012, 94(5), 399-418. (Matlab codes)

"The Local Effects of Monetary Policy" (with Neville Francis and Michael Owyang), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 12(2) (Advances), 2012. (Appendix, Matlab codes)

"Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance" (with Barbara Rossi), Journal of Econometrics 164(1), 2011, 158-172. (Matlab codes)

"Have Economic Models' Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?" (with Barbara Rossi), International Journal of Forecasting 26(4), 2010, 808-835. (Appendix, Matlab codes)

Policy Publications

"Methodology for Constructing an Economic Index for the College Station-Bryan Metropolitan Statistical Area" (with Dennis Jansen, Carlos Navarro and Andrew Rettenmaier), Private Enterprise Research Center Policy Studies, October 2018.

"Output and Unemployment: How Do They Relate Today?" (with Michael Owyang and E. Katarina Vermann), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2013, 5-9. (Short discussion in The WSJ's Real Time Economics & Conversable Economist)

Tatevik Sekhposyan

Curriculum Vitae Research Statement Uncertainty Indices Most recently taught courses: ECON 674, Economic Forecasting, Spring 2019 and ECON 689, Special Topics in Empirical Methods for Macro, Fall 2018

The Economics Department at TAMU has hosted the 27th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Econometrics Group on October 20th and October 21st, 2017.

Slides for the 2015 Armenian Economic Association Workshop on "Forecasting Techniques and Forecast Evaluation"

Research Fields Macroeconomics, Time Series (Classical and Bayesian) Econometrics, Forecasting

Curriculum Vitae Research Statement Uncertainty Indices

Most recently taught courses: ECON 674, Economic Forecasting, Spring 2019 and ECON 689, Special Topics in Empirical Methods for Macro, Fall 2018

Research Fields

Macroeconomics, Time Series (Classical and Bayesian) Econometrics, Forecasting